Better Than a Stock Market Crash Prediction

Editor's note: We may not like it, but financial crises are unavoidable over the long term. And while the market shake-up we're seeing today differs from past "Minsky moments," you should always plan for a number of outcomes. In today's Weekend Edition, we're taking a break from our usual fare to share this essay from Dan Ferris, which we last published in DailyWealth in August 2023. In it, Dan shares three ways to prepare for the next market crash...

It's time to talk about Hyman Minsky and his "moments"... while we still have the chance.

Minsky was an American economist who taught at American universities until his death in 1996. He's best known for his financial instability hypothesis – which, in short, says that financial crises are normal and to be expected.

As the Wall Street Journal reported in 2007...

[Minsky] spent much of his career advancing the idea that financial systems are inherently susceptible to bouts of speculation that, if they last long enough, end in crises. At a time when many economists were coming to believe in the efficiency of markets, Mr. Minsky was considered somewhat of a radical for his stress on their tendency toward excess and upheaval.

Nobody likes to hear it... but crises are an inevitable part of capitalism.

A "Minsky moment" is a crash that happens after an excessive debt buildup. The term was coined by investor Paul McCulley in 1998. Later, when the U.S. was on the brink of the 2008 financial crisis, he used it again...

As he told the Journal in August 2007, "We are in the midst of a Minsky moment, bordering on a Minsky meltdown."

Now, I've been talking about the probability of another crisis for a couple years. And I've probably said it a hundred times or more in my career: Prepare, don't predict...

Don't get me wrong. I often discuss what I believe will happen in the future – and I encourage you to do the same. Investors should do their best to "see around corners" and anticipate risks others might not see.

But when it's time to allocate your hard-earned capital, you need to be humble before the market gods. Admit that you can't predict what's coming.

Instead, you should position yourself for many possible outcomes. The best way to do that is to build a prepared portfolio...

Three Steps to Protect Your Investments

James Montier, long-time analyst of asset manager GMO, published a 2023 white paper about three ways to prepare for crashes and crises.

If you're looking for ways to arm your portfolio for a difficult market environment, you must know these strategies...

First, hold cash.

Cash is the ultimate diversifier. The faster (and further) other assets fall... the better cash looks by comparison. Montier also points out that cash becomes more attractive as interest rates rise.

Back in July 2023, my wife showed me a bank statement after noticing the interest rate on our account was 5.96%. She said, "Hey we need to get some more money in there!" I did not disagree.

While interest rates have come down since then, yields are still higher today than they've been in the past. Investors can still get a decent return on the easiest way to protect their downside. If you want to be ready for tough market conditions, having plenty of cash on hand is hard (if not impossible) to beat.

Next, buy quality and avoid junk.

Montier's second strategy to prepare for tough times is to buy quality stocks and sell short "junk" stocks.

We don't short stocks very often in my Extreme Value newsletter, with some recent exceptions. But we specialize in recommending high-quality stocks...

We find companies using five essential traits of high-quality businesses: gushing free cash flow, consistent margins, good balance sheets, shareholder rewards (that is, dividends and share repurchases), and high returns on equity.

You can use the same five markers to identify junk stocks: negative cash flow, volatile or nonexistent margins, debt-ridden balance sheets, no shareholder rewards, and little or no returns on equity.

Professionals have used this strategy for many years. Every time I've spoken with hedge-fund manager Carlo Cannell over the past 20 years or so, for example, he has been short various junk stocks he expects to go to zero. He calls them "animals dying by the side of the road."

Finally, buy value stocks and sell short pricey growth stocks.

Montier explains that investors seeking to shield themselves from crashes and crises should "focus on assets with large margins of safety where the bad news has already been priced in." In other words...

Buying decent businesses with beaten-down share prices exposes you to less downside risk when the excrement finally hits the fan.

All these strategies make sense to me. I've shown readers how to use them all in one way or another over the years. And if you put them to work, they can help you protect your wealth from what Montier calls "slow burn Minsky moments"...

Montier doesn't quite say what he means by "slow burn." I have to assume he's saying the next crisis won't be as sudden as the 2008 financial meltdown or the dot-com bust... But it could be as traumatic.

So, protect yourself now.

Good investing,

Dan Ferris

Editor's note: According to Dan, you may have less than two weeks left to move your money. He says a monetary reset is already in motion – and it could cost investors who aren't prepared 40% of their wealth. But the coming "Mar-a-Lago Accord" is opening a small window of opportunity in one asset class... Learn how Wall Street insiders are already positioning themselves for potential explosive gains right here.